统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 45-56.doi: 10.19343/ j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.02.004

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中欧大气污染的空间交互影响网络与双边合作治理———基于大数据因果推断技术的实证研究

刘华军 乔列成   

  • 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-02-25

Spatial Interaction Network and Bilateral Cooperative Governance of Air Pollution in China and Europe—Based on Big Data Causal Inference Technique

Liu Huajun Qiao Liecheng   

  • Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-02-25

摘要: 大气污染问题事关人类健康,是全人类面临的共同挑战。积极探索大气污染的双边合作治理,可以为推动中欧关系迈向更高水平、打造中欧全面战略伙伴关系开辟新的途径。本文采用网络爬虫技术采集2017-2019年中欧城市PM2.5地面监测日报数据,利用大数据因果推断的转移熵方法量化了中欧大气污染的空间交互影响程度,并从网络视角揭示了中欧大气污染空间交互影响的网络结构特征。研究发现:在地区层面,中欧大气污染不仅存在稳定的空间交互影响关系,而且这种影响关系具有较强的对称性;中欧大气污染的空间关联网络具有整体性、全局性和复杂性、多线程以及个体化、差异化的特点。在城市层面,高污染与强影响力并不存在必然联系,低污染城市可能同时影响多个城市,高污染城市也可能受多个城市的影响。基于上述研究结论,本文从多角度入手,为中欧大气污染双边合作治理提出针对性的政策建议。

关键词: 中欧, 大气污染, 双边合作, 转移熵, 社会网络分析

Abstract: Air pollution is not only a serious problem related to human health but also a common challenge facing mankind. Actively exploring bilateral cooperative governance of air pollution can open up a new way to promote China-Europe relationship to a higher level and build a comprehensive strategic partnership. This paper uses web crawler technology to collect PM2. 5 daily data of cities in China and Europe from 2017 to 2019. The transfer entropy method of big data causal inference is used to quantify the degree of spatial interaction of air pollution between China and Europe, and the network structural characteristic of the spatial interaction is revealed from the perspective of network. The results show that the air pollution in China and Europe not only has stable spatial interaction, but also has strong symmetry at the regional level. The spatial correlation network of air pollution between China and Europe is holistic, global, complex, multi-thread, individual and differential. At the city level, there is no inevitable relationship between high pollution and high influence. Low pollution cities may affect multiple cities at the same time, and high pollution cities may also be affected by multiple cities. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations for the bilateral cooperative governance of air pollution between China and Europe from different perspectives.

Key words: China and Europe, Air Pollution, Bilateral Cooperation, Transfer Entropy, Social Network Analysis